蘑菇AV

Canadians Brace for Higher Food Inflation, Trust Rises in Independent Grocers, and Local Food Gains Ground: New National Report

HALIFAX, NS 鈥� May 6, 2025听鈥� The Agri-Food Analytics Lab at 蘑菇AV has released its听Spring 2025 Canadian Food Sentiment Index, offering a timely snapshot of Canadians鈥� shifting attitudes toward food prices, values, behaviors, and trust in food systems.

Based on a nationally representative survey of 2,994 Canadians conducted in March 2025 and supported by Caddle, this second edition reveals growing anxiety around food affordability鈥攅specially as expectations of听double-digit food inflation听have surged to听28.5%, up nearly 10 percentage points since Fall 2024.

Despite these concerns, the report also uncovers positive trends.听Trust in all food institutions has improved, with听independent grocers showing the largest gain in public confidence. Furthermore, Canadians are increasingly voting with their wallets: over听43.5% now say they 鈥渁lways鈥� or 鈥渙ften鈥� buy local foods, up 10 percentage points in six months. Younger Canadians (Gen Z) are leading this charge, with more than half regularly purchasing local.

鈥淭his report paints a complex but hopeful picture,鈥� said听Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab. 鈥淐anadians are clearly worried about inflation, but they鈥檙e also adapting鈥攎aking smarter choices, turning to trusted sources, and supporting local producers more than ever before.鈥�

Other key findings include:

• Canadians are听buying less food per person听than a year ago, despite high inflation.
• Retail food spending per capita听declined slightly, while听restaurant spending increased modestly.
• Affordability听remains the top food purchasing factor, but听nutrition and taste听are gaining ground.
• Use of听coupons and switching stores听to save money is decreasing, suggesting consumers may be reaching their limit on frugality.
• There is听broad support for removing sales taxes on all food items, with strongest backing in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies.
• Value-driven shopping behaviors听such as choosing store brands are on the rise, while interest in听plant-based proteins听has slightly declined.

The Canadian Food Sentiment Index is released twice per year and tracks trends over time to help inform policymakers, industry leaders, and the public about the state of Canada鈥檚 food system.

For interviews or media inquiries, please contact:

Sylvain Charlebois,听sylvain.charlebois@dal.ca听(French and English)

Stacey Taylor听stacey_taylor@cbu.ca

Samantha Taylor听Samantha.Taylor@dal.ca

Armagan Ozbilgea听ozbilgea@dal.ca

Methodology

The Spring 2025 edition of the听Canadian Food Sentiment Index听was developed by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at 蘑菇AV, with the support of Caddle, to assess Canadians鈥� attitudes, behaviors, and perceptions surrounding food-related issues. This bi-annual survey provides trend data by repeating core questions from previous waves while introducing timely additions based on evolving market dynamics and policy debates.

Survey Period

Data collection was conducted between听March 4 and March 5, 2025, using an online survey platform administered by Caddle.

Sample and Representativeness

The survey captured responses from听2,994 Canadians听across all provinces and territories. The sample was designed to be听representative of the Canadian population, applying quotas based on听age, gender, region, and education level. To further ensure national representativeness, survey data were听weighted using the most recent Statistics Canada census data.

Survey Instrument

The structured questionnaire was inspired by Purdue University鈥檚听Consumer Food Insights Report, adapted for Canadian context. Respondents answered a mix of听Likert scale, multiple-choice, and categorical questions听肠辞惫别谤颈苍驳:

• Perceived food price inflation and affordability
• Food purchasing behaviors and diet choices
• Trust in food institutions and regulatory bodies
• Attitudes toward local food, sustainability, and food safety
• Food-related financial hardship, including borrowing or drawing from savings

Data Analysis

Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data. Year-over-year comparisons were made with Fall 2024 results. Where appropriate, cross-tabulations and subgroup analyses by region, age cohort, and dietary pattern were conducted.

Margin of Error and Limitations

As the survey was conducted online using a non-probability sample, a traditional margin of error does not strictly apply. However, for reference, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of 卤1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Limitations include the exclusion of Canadians without reliable internet access and the potential for听self-reporting bias听on sensitive topics such as food waste, health, or household hardship.

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